Introduction

Late October 2025 delivered a series of significant market signals in quick succession, which impacted the price of ETH to USD.
Understanding these signals and their interplay is essential for evaluating ETH price movements during this period.

The delayed September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was published amidst a prolonged federal government shutdown that constrained regular economic reporting and left the cryptocurrency market without current data. Markets’ interpretation of the data, through the lens of Federal Reserve policy expectations, resulted in short-term price dynamics in ETH.

CPI as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy

Inflation data changes the expected trajectory of interest rates. A lower CPI typically increases the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Lower policy rates, in turn, reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and can support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, as a higher CPI fuels skepticism about rate cuts, it can put pressure on speculative assets. Since ETH is a speculative asset that is also increasingly benefiting from institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and staking, heightened volatility during such periods can be expected, says Coindesk.

Decrypt highlights that, beyond inflation data, structural drivers also contributed to volatility in the days leading up to the release of the CPI report. The following paragraph details what Blockchain News identified as key factors – namely, institutional demand and ETF flows, with ETH recording significant inflows and outflows during this period.

Adding further complexity, the government shutdown influenced these market dynamics. By delaying data streams and adding increasing uncertainty (which increases volatility) to growth forecasts, the shutdown complicated the above picture. Following this, consider how such uncertainty may shape ETH price action: if the shutdown amplifies expectations for looser policy and weakens short-term growth, it could create tailwinds for ETH.

What investors must watch for

Ultimately, investors should not overreact to single data releases such as the CPI report but rather monitor the three factors that are always present as indicators of market sentiment. According to Bitget, they are:

• Federal Reserve policy signals and sudden changes in inflation figures at the time of their release. The latter can quickly sway cryptocurrency prices and investor sentiment.
• ETF and institutional flows.
• Blockchain data points like transaction volume and wallet activity that offer insight into market behaviour, the amount of cryptocurrency locked up for staking as a gauge of investor confidence and network engagement, and Layer-2 activity, also known as usage trends on scaling solutions, because it eases congestion and cuts fees on the main blockchain.

Conclusion

Rather than using inflation releases as final inputs, investors should use them as prompts to reevaluate their positions. Decisions should always be based on factors such as sustained institutional flows and on-chain adoption, as these ultimately determine if an ETH to USD price move is temporary or the start of a new trend.